Jul 12, 2011

Prospects: From Lemons To Lemonade - An Organization Transformation

CH: Those who read this blog know I am far from a kool-aid drinker. But there is a lot to be said about the transformation of the Islanders prospect pool from the day Mike Milbury left to today. It wouldn't be fair to give all the credit to Garth Snow, as former Isles GM Neil Smith led the 2006 Draft. That was a watershed draft for the Islanders, as they have had three graduates from that draft, with two playing in prominent roles for the Isles. They are of course, Kyle Okposo (first round), Andrew MacDonald (sixth round), and Jesse Joensuu (second round).

They joined, at the time, a decent enough prospect pool with future NHLers Blake Comeau, Frans Nielsen, Sean Bergenheim, Jeff Tambellini, and Bruno Gervais. Headlined by Ryan O'Marra, Robert Nilsson, and Petteri Nokelainen, it was clear while there was average NHL depth in the system, there wasn't enough to compete. Isles fans used to get excited over Igor Volkov and Dustin Kohn. After that draft and a dominant WJC, Robin Figren became that guy.

After a playoff appearance in 2007, and a major trade, the Isles were not left with much in the 2007 draft. They picked up solid depth in Mark Katic, Jason Gregoire, and Blake Kessel. However, it looks like only Katic will play games for the organization.

Then, after one last try at mediocrity, the Islanders decided it was time to rebuild from the ground up. With that, the 2008 draft became the first step in the redefinition of the New York Islanders. With their first round pick, the Islanders shocked the NHL by picking Windsor center Josh Bailey. While he has not nearly panned out as expected, he has shown flashes of excellence. Now entering his fourth season, it's time for Bailey to take the next step. In the later rounds, the team took current Isles Travis Hamonic, Matt Martin, and Kevin Poulin. They took a chance on a first round talent in Kirill Petrov. Aaron Ness, Justin DiBenedetto, and up-and-comer Matt Donovan have or will play games for the Islanders organization.

That draft is nothing short of a success with at least 4 every-day NHL players. The Islanders were rising amongst the ranks but were not in the top half of the league yet. Then came 2009, a watershed draft for this team. The Isles finished last in 2008-2009, and had the right to choose first overall. After a laborious month or two of anticipation, the Isles selected their franchise player: John Tavares. After finally getting a top-end talent, the Isles complemented him with stud D Calvin de Haan. They selected another top end goalie prospect in Anders Nilsson, the Isles took another chance on Casey Cizikas - now a top 7 prospect with the Islanders. A sleeper in Anders Lee was chosen, and draftees Mikko Koskinen and Anton Klementyev have both played games in the NHL.

Now on the verge of a top 10 system, the Isles were to select fifth in the 2010 draft. In a bit of a surprise, they chose a dominant Swiss forward, Nino Niederreiter. They finished the first round by selecting a raw, but very promising center in Brock Nelson. And then they took a misguided wonder in the third round. A player who was predicted to be a top 10 (or better) talent in Kirill Kabnov. Finally, the Islanders had a top 10 system.

The Isles had the opportunity to select fifth one more time in 2011. They chose a skilled leader in Ryan Strome - a perfect complement to John Tavares. Couple that with a pair of bruising defensemen in Scott Mayfield and Andrei Pedan. Johan Sundstrom and Robbie Russo put the cap on a very solid draft class, putting the Isles organizational system in the top-5.

Now, it's time to use these assets. Develop, trade, whatever they have to do to ensure a winning team. The Isles fans are tired of losing. They have the talent to win - management needs to just help them get there. But from Evgeny Tunik to Scott Mayfield, it's certainly been quite the transformation. And that is something to be proud of.

AT: It's been quite the change in management style since the days of Mad Mike. We've come a long way since Justin Mapletoft and Justin Papineau were considered high end prospects. Garth Snow and the scouting crew have done a magnificent job in finding players with talent and stocking the pool with players with gigantic potential.

The 2007 draft is excusable as Gregoire and Kessel - both talented players - used a loophole to sign elsewhere, and Katic is in the system and looks to be a Jack Hillen replacement as a 7-8 defenseman. The 2008 draft, as much as some hated the choice to trade down, brought in major pieces of the core today as well as our current prospect pool. Those who wanted Nikita Filatov, who was just traded for a lowly 3rd round pick, should be ecstatic with how that draft panned out. While yes, Bailey still has yet to come into his full potential, the rest of the prospects gathered in the '08 draft such as Ness, Donovan, Hamonic, Martin and Poulin make me think of the '08 draft as a major success. The '09 draft brought in the franchise center we so desperately needed and his potential has been entirely shown so far. In addition, we have a top pairing D-man potential in Calvin De Haan, two major goaltending prospects in Koskinen and Nilsson, as well as Casey Cizikas who should find himself as being part of the "core" very shortly.  The 2010 draft was very good as well, and we saw Garth go for a big power forward in Niederreiter as well as a player with top 10 potential in Kabanov. And finally, the 2011 draft had the Islanders draft someone who I believe should be the final piece of the youth core, Ryan Strome.

We know it's extremely difficult to attract high end free agents to Long Island. We've known that for a long time. Drafting correctly and with intelligence is absolutely essential to the future success of this team. Chicago did it and so did Pittsburgh, and I'd like to say it worked out pretty well for them. Let's not forget how many times Chicago and Pittsburgh were considered "jokes". The Pittsburgh team that once had Dick Tarnstrom as its leading scorer a few years leader had it's #1 draft pick raising the Stanley Cup. Let's hope we can see the same here. Garth has done a good job. Yes, not all prospects pan out as planned (Corey Trivino anyone?) but if developed properly, we almost certainly will see success on Long Island with almost all homegrown talent.

Another knack Garth has is his ability to scout out potential in players who have been cast off by other teams. We saw it with Moulson, a perennial AHL'er, becoming a 2 time 30 goal scorer on a line with John Tavares. We saw it with Michael Grabner, a 2006 first round draft pick who was let go by the Canucks, cut by the Panthers and then finally made it to the Islanders with a rookie of the year nomination by year's end. And while some will argue this, he also found it in P.A. Parenteau, who with all of his flaws still managed to put up a very respectable 53 points last season. He has added to both the prospect pool and roster both via drafting and through close watch of players who have been let go by other organizations.

Sometimes, you have to give credit where credit is due. In terms of his scouts and drafting so far, Garth receives outstanding grades.

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